The risk regime.
The S&P 500 and the volatility curve.
S&P 500 with its trigger levels
A close below the 20-day low with the index under its 50-day average would confirm a downside change. A close above the 20-day high with the index over its 50-day average would invalidate it.
VIX / VIX3M ratio
Below 1.0 the volatility curve slopes upward, which is normal. A cross above 1.0 is an early warning and would turn this risk vote to risk-off.
Rotation and breadth.
Sector returns
Bars show 20-session returns; the dot shows 5 sessions. Sectors are sorted from strongest to weakest.
Share of S&P 500 members above their averages
Computed from each member's daily closes. The breadth vote turns risk-on at 60% above the 200-day and risk-off at 40%. The member list is today's, so treat direction as more reliable than level.
How the markets compare.
Where each market sits on return and volatility, and how long its current trend label has tended to last.
Market map
Each market's 20-session return against its realised-volatility percentile. Yields are left out because they move in basis points.
How long labels usually last
Historical share of days with today's trend label that had a different label 10 and 60 sessions later. A high 60-day figure means the current label has rarely lasted.
What this means for digital assets.
General information about how groups of digital assets have tended to behave as risk appetite changes. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.
Where digital assets sit on the risk spectrum
Bitcoin and Ether move between the first two columns by their 60-session correlation with the Nasdaq 100. At 0.3 or above they count as trading with risk appetite. The other groups are placed by what they are built to do.
Is Bitcoin trading like tech or like gold?
Rolling 60-session correlation of daily returns. Near +1 the two move together, near 0 there is no consistent link. Crypto prices are matched to the US session they overlap.
Leverage and cash in the market
Perpetual futures funding and open interest are from one exchange (Binance). Stablecoin supply is the total across issuers.
General information only. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Digital assets are volatile and can lose value. Stablecoins and tokenised assets carry issuer, custody, liquidity and regulatory risk. Correlations change over time and past relationships may not hold.
Where each market stands.
Lean is the net of the five trend votes, from −5 (all bearish) to +5 (all bullish). Trend, risk and volatility labels for every market the screener tracks. A marked left edge means the market fired an alert today. Trigger shows whether the close is through its trigger level (hit), within half a day's average range of it (near) or clear; only filtered downside hits raise an alert. Base rates are how often, in this market's own history, the trend label was different 10 and 60 sessions later.
| Market | Trend | Lean | Risk | Volatility | Confidence | Trigger | 20 sessions | Change odds 10d | Change odds 60d | Analyst view |
|---|
Alerts and the calendar ahead.
Today's alerts
Alerts fire when a label changes, confidence moves sharply, the VIX curve inverts or credit spreads widen fast. A first-run change is an early warning. A shift is confirmed only once the label holds.
| Alert | What changed | Confidence |
|---|
Next weeks
Event dates come from the named web sources. Unconfirmed dates are marked.
| Date | Event |
|---|